# GADGETI — category deep-dive & forecasting plan

_Window 2026-03-02 → 2026-05-24 (12 ISO weeks). 'Not selling' = no sale in the last 8 weeks (since 2026-03-30). 'New' = first sale in W16+. Generated 2026-05-27._

## 1. Headline

- **422 active SKUs**; 198 sold in the window, **63 newly introduced** (first sale in last 6 wks), **162 stocked but never sold in the window**.
- Sales: **€244,998 revenue**, **€31,642 margin (RUC)** = **12.9%** blended, 1,050 units (~88/week across the whole range).
- **Stock: 2,563 units, ~€384,018 at cost** — vs €244,998 revenue/quarter (**~4.6 months of cover**).

## 2. Channel split — web vs stores

| Channel | Revenue | % rev | Units | % units |
|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| Retail | €133,974 | 53.5% | 550 | 51.5% |
| Webshop | €113,046 | 45.1% | 506 | 47.4% |
| Wholesale | €3,384 | 1.4% | 12 | 1.1% |

**Of B2C: web 45.8% / stores 54.2%** of revenue. Wholesale is marginal.

## 3. Monthly trend

| Month | Units | Revenue | Margin |
|---|--:|--:|--:|
| Mar 2026 | 364 | €85,554 | €9,302 |
| Apr 2026 | 314 | €85,656 | €10,258 |
| May 2026 | 372 | €73,787 | €12,082 |

## 4. New / recently introduced gadgets

- **63 SKUs first sold in the last 6 weeks** — ramping, *not* to be read as dead. Early traction: 140 units, €27,301 revenue, €100,729 stock at cost.

Top new intros by early revenue:

| SKU | Name | Units | Revenue | Stock | €cost stock |
|---|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| GAR04843 | Fenix 8 Pro 51 mm LTE AMOLED Sapphire Carbon | 9 | €6,704 | 7 | €5,691 |
| GAR04842 | Fenix 8 Pro 47 mm LTE AMOLED Sapphire Tit. G | 3 | €2,376 | 12 | €9,000 |
| GAR04654 | Forerunner 265 Music Black | 7 | €1,989 | 10 | €2,919 |
| HUW15026 | Huawei Watch GT6 Pro 46mm Titanium | 7 | €1,927 | 19 | €6,080 |
| GAR04757 | Enduro 3, Sapphire, Carbon Gray DLC Titanium | 4 | €1,776 | 6 | €3,375 |
| GAR04788 | Tactix 8 Standard Solar 51mm | 1 | €1,248 | 6 | €5,625 |
| GAR04850 | Venu 4 45mm Gray Silver Citron | 3 | €1,160 | 24 | €8,262 |
| GAR04720 | Vivoactive 5, Ivory Cream Gold | 6 | €1,008 | 5 | €855 |
| HUW15019 | Huawei Watch FIT 4 Black | 14 | €910 | 12 | €1,392 |
| GAR04699 | Venu 3S Dust Rose Soft Gold | 3 | €872 | 10 | €2,970 |
| GAR04663 | Forerunner 265 Music Aqua | 2 | €640 | 3 | €844 |
| GAR04782 | Instinct 3 45mm AMOLED Black | 2 | €624 | 12 | €3,375 |

## 5. Stock & overstock (excludes new intros)

- WH: **308 units (~€30,977)**; stores: **2,255 units (~€353,041)** — most stock sits in stores.
- **41 established SKUs carry >26 weeks cover** — €74,316 tied.

| SKU | Name | Stock | Weeks cover | €cost tied | 8wk units |
|---|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| GAR04844 | Fenix 8 Pro 51 mm LTE AMOLED Sapphire Tit. | 12 | 48 | €9,756 | 3 |
| GAR04847 | Venu 4 41mm Black Slate Black | 16 | 64 | €5,508 | 3 |
| GAR04756 | Fenix 8, 51 mm, Solar Sapphire Tit., Amp Y | 7 | 42 | €5,030 | 2 |
| GAR04787 | Tactix 8 Standard AMOLED 51mm | 5 | 60 | €4,688 | 0 |
| PLR09096 | POLAR GRIT X PRO BLK M/L | 18 | 108 | €4,574 | 1 |
| GAR04846 | Venu 4 41mm Gray Silver Periwinkle | 13 | 39 | €4,475 | 3 |
| GAR04826 | Forerunner 970 Soft Gold Titanium, French  | 9 | 27 | €4,226 | 2 |
| HUW15023 | Huawei Watch FIT 4 Pro Black | 15 | 180 | €2,865 | 1 |
| SHZ400023 | Shokz OpenFit 2 Black | 23 | 92 | €2,829 | 2 |
| GAR04695 | Venu 3 Black Slate | 9 | 54 | €2,673 | 2 |
| GAR04837 | Forerunner 570 Whitestone/Amp Yellow (47 m | 7 | 28 | €2,450 | 2 |
| SHZ400020 | Shokz Open Dots One Grey | 18 | 216 | €2,340 | 1 |

## 6. Dead / dying — sold earlier, nothing in 8 weeks

- **17 SKUs sold earlier in the window but had ZERO sales in the last 8 weeks**, still holding **€9,386** at cost. This is the genuine dead tail (new intros excluded).

| SKU | Name | Stock | €cost tied | Units(12wk) | First sold |
|---|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| GAR04787 | Tactix 8 Standard AMOLED 51mm | 5 | €4,688 | 1 | 202612 |
| GAR04781 | Instinct 3 50mm SOLAR Twilight Solstice | 5 | €1,406 | 1 | 202611 |
| HUW14972 | LDU Huawei Watch Fit 2, Sakura Pink Strap | 13 | €1,320 | -1 | 202611 |
| HUW15014 | HUAWEI FreeArc Grey | 7 | €427 | 1 | 202612 |
| HUW15010 | Huawei Watch GT 5 Pro 46mm Titanium | 1 | €267 | 1 | 202610 |
| GAR04745 | Watch Band UltraFit 2, 26 mm Nylon Straps  | 9 | €208 | 1 | 202610 |
| GAR04721 | Vivoactive 5, Captain Blue Metalic Blue | 1 | €188 | 1 | 202610 |
| HUW15013 | HUAWEI FreeArc Black | 3 | €183 | 1 | 202612 |
| GAR04564 | Zamjenski remen za fenix 7X - Moss | 6 | €173 | 3 | 202611 |
| GAR04358 | Zamjenski remen za fenix 6 - bijeli | 4 | €116 | 1 | 202612 |
| MEQ17346 | KSIX Noise Cancel 3 Wireless Headphones AN | 5 | €101 | 1 | 202610 |
| GAR04357 | Zamjenski remen za fenix 6 - Amp Yellow | 3 | €87 | 1 | 202613 |
| MEQ17339 | KSIX Meteor Wireless Headphones ENC Metal  | 4 | €78 | 1 | 202611 |
| GAR04707 | Watch Band Quickfit 22mm, Electric Lime/Gr | 2 | €57 | 1 | 202611 |
| HUW14959 | HUAWEI EasyFit 2 Fluoroelastomer Strap Oli | 2 | €31 | 1 | 202612 |

## 7. Stocked but never sold in the window — new arrivals OR dormant

- **162 SKUs hold stock but recorded no sale in 12 weeks — €72,504 at cost.** These are *either* brand-new arrivals not yet sold *or* dormant lines. They need a CM eyeball (no sales signal can't tell them apart). Sorted by cash tied:

| SKU | Name | Stock | €cost tied |
|---|---|--:|--:|
| GAR04851 | Tactix 8 Cerakote Slate Gray 51mm | 13 | €13,006 |
| GAR04827 | Venu X1 Black | 22 | €11,022 |
| GAR04786 | Tactix 8 Standard AMOLED 47mm | 6 | €5,252 |
| GAR04696 | Venu 3S Pebble Gray Slate | 11 | €3,440 |
| GAR04697 | Venu 3S Silver Sage Gray | 10 | €3,129 |
| GAR04662 | Forerunner 265 Music Whitestone | 8 | €2,250 |
| GAR04657 | Forerunner 265S Music Pink | 7 | €2,190 |
| GAR04784 | Instinct 3 50mm AMOLED Black Charcoal | 6 | €1,876 |
| GAR04728 | Forerunner 165 Music, Black Slate Grey | 9 | €1,856 |
| GAR04820 | Vivoactive 6 Jasper Green/J. Green Metallic | 9 | €1,856 |
| PLR09123 | POLAR VANTAGE M3 GRY/GOLD | 7 | €1,698 |
| MI33677 | Xiaomi Watch 2, Silver | 12 | €1,548 |
| GAR04731 | Forerunner 165 Music, Berry Lilac | 7 | €1,444 |
| HUW14989 | Huawei Watch 4, Black Case black strap | 6 | €1,416 |
| SHZ400024 | Shokz OpenFit 2 Beige | 11 | €1,353 |

## 8. Watches not selling (8-week lens, new intros excluded)

- Watch-type SKUs: **279**; with stock but no recent/any sell-through: **129** (~€51,455 tied).

| SKU | Name | Stock | €cost tied | Units(12wk) | Weeks cover |
|---|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| GAR04827 | Venu X1 Black | 22 | €11,022 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04696 | Venu 3S Pebble Gray Slate | 11 | €3,440 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04697 | Venu 3S Silver Sage Gray | 10 | €3,129 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04662 | Forerunner 265 Music Whitestone | 8 | €2,250 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04657 | Forerunner 265S Music Pink | 7 | €2,190 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04784 | Instinct 3 50mm AMOLED Black Charcoal | 6 | €1,876 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04820 | Vivoactive 6 Jasper Green/J. Green Metalli | 9 | €1,856 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04728 | Forerunner 165 Music, Black Slate Grey | 9 | €1,856 | 0 | ∞ |
| PLR09123 | POLAR VANTAGE M3 GRY/GOLD | 7 | €1,698 | 0 | ∞ |
| MI33677 | Xiaomi Watch 2, Silver | 12 | €1,548 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04731 | Forerunner 165 Music, Berry Lilac | 7 | €1,444 | 0 | ∞ |
| HUW14989 | Huawei Watch 4, Black Case black strap | 6 | €1,416 | 0 | ∞ |
| GAR04781 | Instinct 3 50mm SOLAR Twilight Solstice | 5 | €1,406 | 1 | 60 |
| PLR09117 | POLAR GRIT X2 PRO BLK/BLK S-L | 3 | €1,349 | 0 | ∞ |
| HUW14972 | LDU Huawei Watch Fit 2, Sakura Pink Strap | 13 | €1,320 | -1 | ∞ |

## 9. Does promo help gadgets?

| | Units | % units | Revenue | Margin | Margin % |
|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| Off promo | 883 | 84.1% | €184,847 | €28,002 | 15.1% |
| On promo  | 167 | 15.9% | €60,150 | €3,640 | 6.1% |

- Only **15.9% of units** sell on promo, and promo **margin collapses to 6.1%** (vs 15.1% off promo).
- Within the **35 SKUs that ran both promo and non-promo weeks**, the median weekly-units uplift on promo is **1.00×**.
- **Verdict: promo barely moves volume while roughly halving margin — promo is **margin-dilutive, not a volume lever** for gadgets.** Watches/devices are considered, brand-priced (often MAP-restricted) purchases — discounting gives away margin on units that would largely sell anyway. Don't lean on promo to clear gadget stock; use it surgically (true EOL clearance only).

## 10. Top performers (for contrast)

| SKU | Name | Margin | Revenue | Units | Web% |
|---|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| GAR04747 | Fenix 8, 43 mm, AMOLED Sapphire, Soft Gold | €2,215 | €16,133 | 27 | 39.9% |
| GAR04755 | Fenix 8, 51 mm, Solar Sapphire, Carbon Gra | €1,409 | €8,642 | 16 | 49.2% |
| GAR04752 | Fenix 8, 51 mm, AMOLED Sapphire, Carbon Gr | €1,305 | €9,168 | 15 | 23.3% |
| GAR04753 | Fenix 8, 47 mm, Solar Sapphire, Carbon Gra | €1,253 | €11,892 | 17 | 60.7% |
| HUW15005 | Huawei Watch GT 5 41mm Gold | €1,219 | €9,400 | 63 | 78.5% |
| GAR04685 | Fenix 7X PRO Sapphire SOLAR Carbon Gray DL | €1,154 | €7,429 | 13 | 79.5% |
| GAR04841 | Fenix 8 Pro 47 mm LTE AMOLED Sapphire Carb | €1,083 | €6,699 | 10 | 61.4% |
| GAR04824 | Forerunner 970 Carbon Gray DLC Titanium, B | €1,054 | €9,036 | 17 | 28.7% |
| GAR04658 | Forerunner 965 Black | €989 | €7,328 | 18 | 29.5% |
| GAR04751 | Fenix 8, 51 mm, AMOLED Sapphire Tit., Spar | €980 | €9,248 | 13 | 16.1% |
| GAR04749 | Fenix 8, 47 mm, AMOLED Sapphire Tit., Spar | €899 | €8,272 | 16 | 50.0% |
| GAR04831 | Heart rate monitor HRM 600 M-XL | €782 | €2,476 | 19 | 39.6% |

## 11. How to forecast gadgets (and why not like food)

Food is continuous, repeat-purchase demand → statistical time-series (the current engine) works. Gadgets are the opposite, and the numbers above prove it: ~**2–3 units/SKU per quarter**, **12.9% margin**, **~5 months of stock**, and a long dead/dormant tail. Running statistical TS on 2-units-a-quarter SKUs just projects the recent level flat and keeps 'needing' stock long after the successor model has landed — that is the dead pile.

**Approach — lifecycle planning, not history-extrapolation:**

1. **Launch-curve from an analog.** Forecast a new watch off the model it replaces, scaled by an expected uplift, with an explicit introduction → growth → maturity → **planned decay** curve. New SKUs have no history to fit.
2. **End-of-life / cannibalisation rule.** When a successor launches (Fenix 7 → 8 → 8 Pro), flag the predecessor EOL → **reorder stops, sell down stock**. This single rule is what prevents the dead pile.
3. **Buy-to-plan against ATP, not auto-replenish.** High value, low velocity, supplier MOQ/allocation anyway → forecast coarsely at *model-family* level in € + units, then place small, frequent, deliberate buys.
4. **Web vs store separately.** ~46% web / 54% store: web demand is centralised & more forecastable; stores need a **presentation minimum** (display availability), not deep stock.
5. **Seasonal overlay.** Strong Q4 gifting; 12 weeks can't learn an annual cycle → apply a **category seasonal index**, not per-SKU seasonality.
6. **Promo:** per §9, not a volume lever — exclude promo uplift from gadget forecasts; use discounting only for deliberate EOL clearance.
7. **Measure differently.** Unit/weekly FA is meaningless at this velocity — track **sell-through %, weeks-of-cover, dead-stock €** at family/monthly grain. Drop the food 2×/0.5× sanity bounds; the binding constraints are MOQ, allocation and EOL run-off.

**Build steps:** add a `demand_profile` (lifecycle) flag for the category, a **lifecycle/analog + EOL table**, exclude gadgets from the food auto-reorder engine, and stand up the KPIs above (dead €, cover, sell-through, web/store) as the standing gadget dashboard.