# ABC supplier — PO cancellation business case ## Situation Polleo Sport (sports nutrition / retail, ~€5M company stock budget) is heading into a stock peak in **weeks CW22–CW26 2026** that will push total inventory over **€5M**, which is unacceptable for the business. Today is **CW20 2026** (mid-May). The only lever available on this timeline is to **cancel or postpone incoming POs** from our biggest supplier, **ABC Nutritional Ltd** (98 SKUs, mostly Gold-tier proteins). Other suppliers contribute marginally to the CW22–CW26 spike. Our normal **safety-stock parameter is intentionally high**, so the demand planner (Lovro) is comfortable temporarily dipping below it — the rule for this exercise is: after cancelling a PO, the SKU must still project **≥ 2 weeks of forward weekly demand** at every week from the PO's delivery week onward. ## Key numbers (today, CW20) | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current company stock (WH + stores HR/AT/SLO), units | 4,038,653 | | Current company stock, € | **€4,616,194** | | Projected peak window | CW22–CW26 (>€5M expected) | ## Incoming by week, all suppliers (€) ``` CW19: €297,596 (in transit — locked) CW20: €84,016 (this week — locked) CW21: €73,753 (locked per scope) CW22: €977,676 ← THE WAVE (ABC = €951,928 = 97%) CW23: €386,543 (ABC = €372,069 = 96%) CW24: €296,323 (ABC = €0) CW27: €338,899 (ABC = €211,876 = 63%) CW28: €67,198 ``` **ABC drives the CW22–CW23 peak. Cancelling/postponing ABC is the only meaningful lever in scope.** ## Cancellation scope - Window: **CW22–CW27 2026** (CW19–CW21 treated as locked / past cancel deadline) - ABC POs in window: **124 PO rows, 87 SKUs, 196,653 units, €1,544,064 total** - Floor rule: projected stock without the cancelled PO must stay **≥ 2 weeks of forward weekly demand** at every week from delivery onward (stores stock counted in) ## Analysis result — cumulative safe-to-cancel per SKU Greedy: for each SKU, walk through its POs in delivery-week order, cancel each PO that keeps the projection above the 2-week floor. This is the **honest realistic cancel pool** (single-PO standalone analysis overstates by ~€20k because it double-counts buffer between POs of the same SKU). | Floor (weeks of forward demand) | POs cancelable | Qty | € unlock | |---|---|---|---| | 0w (cancel everything — no floor) | 124 | 196,653 | €1,544,064 | | 1w | 56 | 79,240 | €451,740 | | **2w (chosen)** | **51** | **71,188** | **€365,642** | | 3w | 46 | 55,188 | €279,400 | | 4w | 44 | 48,808 | €249,988 | ## At 2w floor — breakdown by tier | Tier | SKUs | Cum qty | Cum € | |---|---|---|---| | 01 GOLD | 46 | 29,208 | €217,166 | | 02 SILVER | 33 | 29,228 | €122,049 | | 03 BRONZE | 8 | 12,752 | €26,429 | ## At 2w floor — breakdown by delivery week | Week | Safe POs | Qty | € unlock | |---|---|---|---| | CW22 | 33 of 81 | 42,412 | €226,726 | | CW23 | 1 of 8 | 5,760 | €42,465 | | CW26 | 2 of 2 | 1,080 | €8,190 | | CW27 | 20 of 32 | 30,176 | €109,024 | ## Top 30 individual safe-cancel POs by € unlock | SKU | Tier | Category | Delivery | Qty | Cost € | € unlock | Stock now (WH+stores) | Fwd avg wk demand | Min stock after cancel | |:---------|:----------|:------------------|:-----------|------:|---------:|-----------:|------------------------:|--------------------:|-------------------------:| | POL09735 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW23 | 5760 | 7.37 | 42465 | 4300 | 756.5 | 2058 | | POL09736 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 3600 | 7.18 | 25840 | 3995 | 289.1 | 635 | | POL12831 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 6000 | 4.25 | 25473 | 3806 | 214.6 | 801 | | POL12832 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 4000 | 4.27 | 17070 | 5199 | 153.5 | 3116 | | POL09900 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW27 | 504 | 32.33 | 16295 | 433 | 19.2 | 369 | | POL09738 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 2160 | 7.19 | 15530 | 496 | 123.5 | 604 | | POL09829 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 2160 | 7.12 | 15372 | 1971 | 111.2 | 833 | | POL09754 | 01 GOLD | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW27 | 4000 | 3.27 | 13078 | 12546 | 605.5 | 3280 | | POL09755 | 01 GOLD | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW27 | 1500 | 6.28 | 9423 | 3927 | 290.1 | 2074 | | POL09765 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW27 | 600 | 14.44 | 8664 | 218 | 18.4 | 445 | | POL12830 | 03 BRONZE | PROTEINI | CW22 | 2000 | 4.32 | 8645 | 7659 | 122.5 | 5824 | | POL09828 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 252 | 32.93 | 8297 | 314 | 14.1 | 138 | | POL09901 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW27 | 252 | 32.67 | 8232 | 283 | 22.8 | 369 | | POL09900 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 252 | 32.33 | 8148 | 433 | 25.2 | 271 | | POL12752 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 720 | 10.59 | 7627 | 1559 | 194 | 395 | | POL09895 | 01 GOLD | BIO I SUPERFOODS | CW27 | 1440 | 5.14 | 7403 | 1353 | 51.6 | 1481 | | POL09765 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW22 | 500 | 14.44 | 7220 | 218 | 21 | 92 | | POL09898 | 01 GOLD | BIO I SUPERFOODS | CW27 | 1440 | 5 | 7198 | 1108 | 51.1 | 621 | | POL09896 | 02 SILVER | BIO I SUPERFOODS | CW27 | 1440 | 4.98 | 7173 | 906 | 43.9 | 488 | | POL09830 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 420 | 14.75 | 6196 | 943 | 38.1 | 447 | | POL09780 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 420 | 13.79 | 5791 | 241 | 14.9 | 43 | | POL09779 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | CW22 | 420 | 13.74 | 5771 | 321 | 14 | 139 | | ZOE12354 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW26 | 720 | 7.82 | 5630 | 1038 | 45.6 | 357 | | POL09895 | 01 GOLD | BIO I SUPERFOODS | CW22 | 1080 | 5.14 | 5552 | 1353 | 60.6 | 814 | | POL09733 | 03 BRONZE | PROTEINI | CW22 | 10000 | 0.55 | 5485 | 2909 | 259.5 | 611 | | POL12755 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW27 | 2160 | 2.42 | 5234 | 1865 | 74.1 | 645 | | POL09739 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 720 | 7.15 | 5149 | 2417 | 107.5 | 1333 | | POL09891 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | CW22 | 720 | 7.14 | 5144 | 2019 | 98.8 | 1030 | | POL12875 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW22 | 500 | 8.59 | 4295 | 523 | 50.2 | 175 | | POL12874 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | CW22 | 500 | 8.58 | 4290 | 538 | 45.2 | 250 | ## Top 25 SKUs by total € locked in CW22–CW27 ABC POs (cumulative safe view) | SKU | Tier | Cat | Stock now | Fwd wk dmd | POs total | Qty total | € total | POs safe | Qty safe | € safe | |:---------|:----------|:------------------|------------:|-------------:|------------:|------------:|----------:|-----------:|-----------:|---------:| | POL09735 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 4300 | 787.8 | 2 | 12960 | 95546 | 1 | 5760 | 42465 | | POL09736 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 3995 | 289.1 | 1 | 3600 | 25840 | 1 | 3600 | 25840 | | POL12831 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 3806 | 214.6 | 1 | 6000 | 25473 | 1 | 6000 | 25473 | | POL09900 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 433 | 25.2 | 2 | 756 | 24443 | 2 | 756 | 24443 | | POL12832 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 5199 | 153.5 | 1 | 4000 | 17070 | 1 | 4000 | 17070 | | POL09738 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 496 | 123.5 | 1 | 2160 | 15530 | 1 | 2160 | 15530 | | POL09829 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 1971 | 111.2 | 1 | 2160 | 15372 | 1 | 2160 | 15372 | | POL09754 | 01 GOLD | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | 12546 | 692 | 1 | 4000 | 13078 | 1 | 4000 | 13078 | | POL09895 | 01 GOLD | BIO I SUPERFOODS | 1353 | 60.6 | 2 | 2520 | 12955 | 2 | 2520 | 12955 | | POL09755 | 01 GOLD | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | 3927 | 401.9 | 2 | 4500 | 28269 | 1 | 1500 | 9423 | | POL09898 | 01 GOLD | BIO I SUPERFOODS | 1108 | 59.5 | 2 | 1840 | 9197 | 2 | 1840 | 9197 | | POL12830 | 03 BRONZE | PROTEINI | 7659 | 122.5 | 1 | 2000 | 8645 | 1 | 2000 | 8645 | | POL09828 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 314 | 14.1 | 1 | 252 | 8297 | 1 | 252 | 8297 | | POL09901 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 283 | 26 | 2 | 756 | 24696 | 1 | 252 | 8232 | | POL12752 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 1559 | 194 | 2 | 2160 | 22882 | 1 | 720 | 7627 | | POL09765 | 02 SILVER | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | 218 | 21 | 2 | 1100 | 15884 | 1 | 500 | 7220 | | POL09896 | 02 SILVER | BIO I SUPERFOODS | 906 | 78.4 | 2 | 2160 | 10759 | 1 | 1440 | 7173 | | POL09830 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 943 | 38.1 | 1 | 420 | 6196 | 1 | 420 | 6196 | | POL09780 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 241 | 14.9 | 1 | 420 | 5791 | 1 | 420 | 5791 | | POL09779 | 02 SILVER | PROTEINI | 321 | 14 | 1 | 420 | 5771 | 1 | 420 | 5771 | | ZOE12354 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 1038 | 59.5 | 1 | 720 | 5630 | 1 | 720 | 5630 | | POL09733 | 03 BRONZE | PROTEINI | 2909 | 259.5 | 2 | 15000 | 8227 | 1 | 10000 | 5485 | | POL09739 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 2417 | 107.5 | 1 | 720 | 5149 | 1 | 720 | 5149 | | POL09891 | 01 GOLD | PROTEINI | 2019 | 98.8 | 1 | 720 | 5144 | 1 | 720 | 5144 | | POL09757 | 01 GOLD | SPORTSKA PREHRANA | 905 | 23.2 | 2 | 660 | 4768 | 2 | 660 | 4768 | --- ## What I need from you This is a real business decision with limited time. Help me think through: 1. **Is €366k unlock at the chosen 2w floor the right ambition,** or should we relax the floor on a subset of SKUs to unlock more? The CW22–CW26 peak is projected >€5M and current stock is already €4.62M — €366k cancellation reduces the peak but probably doesn't pull it under €5M on its own. Doing the math, what floor level is realistic to get the peak under €5M, and what's the qualitative risk profile of each scenario? 2. **Tier-based risk framing.** Gold-tier SKUs are our best sellers and stockout pain is highest there. Bronze are structurally volatile (low volume, accuracy already weak). Should we cut deeper on Bronze (accept stockout risk on tail items) and protect Gold harder? Or the opposite — cut on Gold because forward demand is more predictable so 1–2w of cover is "enough" there, and protect Bronze because forecast is noisy? 3. **Cancel vs postpone.** Cancellation kills the PO outright; postpone shifts the receipt. ABC may not accept blanket cancellation but might agree to postpone CW22 → CW28+. How would I frame the supplier conversation? What's the standard playbook for negotiating with a major supplier when you've over-ordered? What concessions/penalties should I expect? 4. **Decision framework.** Help me build a 1-page exec-ready recommendation for our leadership. Inputs are above. Outputs I need: (a) recommended action, (b) € impact, (c) stockout risk by tier, (d) supplier-relationship impact, (e) one-page rationale. 5. **Things I might be missing.** What blind spots does this analysis have? (e.g., promo calendar — what if CW22+ has heavy promo activity that bumps real demand vs forecast? what if certain SKUs are on key-account commitments that *can't* stock out?) What would you ask the demand planner before finalizing? Be direct, push back where my framing is weak, and give me a clear recommendation.